AGP Executive Report

Presidential Veto on Same-Sex Legal Status: Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki vetoed a bill creating a legal status for unmarried couples, saying it would weaken the constitutional protection of marriage—an early test for PM Donald Tusk’s coalition agenda. Poland–Ukraine Tensions Under Scrutiny: Polish authorities opened an investigation after an alleged assault on a Ukrainian teenager for speaking Ukrainian on a bus, as reports of hostility toward Ukrainians rise. Border Security Claims: Poland says attempted illegal crossings from Belarus have plunged by over 98% this year, citing deterrence by border guards and the armed forces. Poland–Ukraine Historical Rift: A Polish historian revisits 1940s violence between Ukrainians and Poles and what reconciliation could realistically require. Baltic Security Warning: Lithuania’s defence leadership says Russia may seek a “new victory” via provocations targeting the Baltics and Poland, with critical infrastructure protection extended indefinitely. Aviation & Trade Strategy: Poland’s planned air cargo megahub is being built with limits on chasing Chinese ecommerce traffic, amid concerns about Russia airspace access and LOT’s competitive position.

Poland–Ukraine Defense Funding: Poland’s use of SAFE money for joint projects with Ukraine will be narrow, a former defense minister warns, citing SAFE’s focus on revitalizing Europe’s defense industry and Warsaw’s tight budget from major modernization and procurement. Ukraine Support Debate: Poland’s defense leadership pushes back against calls to weaken support for Kyiv, pointing to Russia’s latest massive missile attack and warning that any slowdown would undercut Polish security. Civil Defense Drill: Poland will run military exercises and nationwide siren tests on July 21 under an ALARM 2026 air-strike simulation, with officials urging calm and no social-media filming of troops. Eastern Flank Security: Latvia reports rising illegal crossings from Belarus, turning the issue into a broader Schengen and hybrid-threat debate across the region. Industry & Deterrence: Rheinmetall pitches Poland large-scale localization of weapons production, while NATO-linked commemorations and Grunwald events underscore continued alliance focus. Poland–Ukraine Relations on Volhynia: Ukraine says it will open archives on the Volhynia tragedy and grant Poland access, as Warsaw and Kyiv try to ease a long-running rift.

Poland–Ukraine Security: Former Polish defense minister Janusz Onyszkiewicz says Poland won’t send troops to Ukraine in any stabilization mission, but will act as a key logistics and operational hub for the “Coalition of the Willing,” while also warning the defense industry still isn’t ready for full-scale cooperation. Diplomacy & Historical Files: Poland’s PM Donald Tusk welcomed Zelensky’s steps to intensify contacts with Warsaw, including opening SBU and intelligence archives tied to the Volhynia tragedy and expanding search/exhumation permits. Border & Schengen Pressure: Latvia reports a sharp rise in Belarus-linked border attempts, reigniting debate over EU border protection, solidarity, and whether Lithuania may reintroduce temporary checks with Latvia. Energy Transition Jobs: Polish coal miners are retraining for wind-industry work, swapping mine shafts for turbine maintenance as the sector shrinks. Infrastructure & Mobility: Poland’s Port Polska (CPK) airport project near Warsaw is set to reshape European travel, with high-speed rail and road links planned for expansion from the start. EU Travel Friction: The new EES border system is causing passport-control queues at multiple European airports, including Krakow, with delays reported up to five hours. Politics Wire Poland

Same-Sex Unions Veto: Poland’s president Karol Nawrocki vetoed bills creating same-sex unions, arguing the constitution protects marriage as between a man and a woman, while Volhynia Archives Deal: Zelenskyy pledged to open SBU and Foreign Intelligence archives and speed permits for exhumations, aiming to ease the Poland–Ukraine rift. Defense Industry & Ukraine Ties: Former Polish defense minister Janusz Onyszkiewicz said Patriot missile transfers are being used in domestic politics, while also warning Poland’s defense industry is still too overloaded to scale up cooperation with Ukraine—though talks continue on MiG-29-related exchanges. MiG-29 Swap Details: Ukraine wants not just MiG-29s from Poland but also aircraft maintenance tools and repair documentation, offering Ukrainian unmanned systems in return. NATO-Russia Pressure: Latvia reinforced security at critical energy sites after intelligence about possible Russian hybrid or sabotage actions, as Baltic Tensions: Poland and the region brace for renewed provocations. AI Exports Boost: A report says the AI boom is lifting Central European exports, with Poland and Hungary gaining from demand for AI infrastructure hardware.

Russia-Ukraine War: Russia hit Kyiv with a missile barrage while EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen was visiting, underscoring Moscow’s message that diplomacy won’t change the battlefield. EU Sanctions Gridlock: The EU’s next Russian sanctions package is still stuck and has been watered down so much diplomats call it “Emmental” “Swiss cheese,” with major proposals pared back. Poland-Ukraine Reset: Polish PM Donald Tusk welcomed Zelensky’s steps to improve ties, including opening Volhynia-related archives and expanding search and exhumation permits, aiming to cool a growing hostility. Cabinet Watch in Ukraine: Ukraine’s new government brought new faces, but the biggest shock was Mykhailo Fedorov’s absence as Defense, with public speculation over the real reasons. Poland Domestic Politics: A CBOS poll shows a sharp reversal: for the first time, more Poles oppose asylum for Ukrainians than support it. Poland’s Legal Line: Poland’s president vetoed bills expanding same-sex couple rights, again framing the move around constitutional protection of marriage. Defense & Deterrence: Germany joined France’s nuclear exercise with conventional forces, signaling deeper European deterrence cooperation as doubts about US reliability grow. EU Climate Policy: The Commission proposed an ETS overhaul to ease pressure on industry, extending emissions flexibility while requiring more decarbonisation spending.

Volhynia Reset in Poland-Ukraine Ties: President Volodymyr Zelensky pledged to open Ukraine’s SBU and foreign intelligence archives on the Volhynia massacres and expand search and exhumation permits, aiming to rebuild trust after a row over Ukrainian military honours that triggered Polish backlash. Poland’s Refugee Mood Turns: A CBOS poll says for the first time a majority of Poles oppose accepting Ukrainian refugees (52% against), with support for aid also falling. LGBT Rights Blocked by Veto: President Karol Nawrocki vetoed bills creating cohabitation contracts and expanding rights for same-sex couples, arguing they would weaken constitutional protection of marriage. Digital Rights vs EU Enforcement: Polish and EU-facing debate grows as rights groups warn the DSA “trusted flagger” system could enable censorship without a court order. Security & Defence Industry: Latvia boosts protection of key energy infrastructure over Russian hybrid-threat fears, while Poland ramps up defence production with Sikorsky Firehawk helicopter output starting at PZL Mielec.

Defense & Industry: Saab says new orders more than doubled in Q2, driven by a Polish contract for three A26-class submarines—its biggest export order—while the backlog hits a record $33B. Security Watch: Russia is stepping up hybrid provocations near NATO borders, with increased Russian aviation activity over the Baltic Sea and repeated Polish fighter scrambles; Latvia meanwhile boosts protection at a hydroelectric dam and the Inčukalns gas storage site and asks NATO for more air defense and troops. Logistics for Drone War: The U.S. Army’s 16th Sustainment Brigade in Europe is redesigning supply around small mobile teams to keep operating under drone-heavy attack. Poland–Ukraine Tensions: Reported hate crimes against Ukrainians in Poland are up about 30% in the first half of 2026, amid rising online hostility and diplomatic friction. LGBT Rights: President Karol Nawrocki vetoes Poland’s “closest person” and cohabitation bills, dealing another blow to same-sex rights. EU Climate Politics: Poland leads a 10-country push to slow ETS tightening and protect households and industry from higher carbon costs. Business: Żabka shares jump on reports of Seven & i talks to take a double-digit stake.

Baltic Security: Latvia says it has boosted protection at a hydro dam and the Inčukalns gas storage after intelligence pointed to Russian hybrid threats, with Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs urging NATO for more air defence and troops and faster anti-drone integration. Regional Warning: Lithuania’s president echoed similar concerns about limited operations against critical infrastructure in the Baltics and Poland, aligning with recent Polish intercepts and surveillance alerts. EU Sanctions Gridlock: The EU failed to agree on a new Russia sanctions package after three days, pushing talks to 22 July as member states including Poland, Germany and France resist tougher seafood restrictions. Poland–Ukraine Tensions: Poland says it indicted a Ukrainian teen accused of sabotage for Russia and of glorifying the UPA/Bandera at memorial sites, adding to a fresh wave of historical-friction claims. Poland Policy Watch: Poland published a visa-free entry list for 2026, with only three African countries included. Ukraine Government Shake-up: President Zelensky confirmed Sergii Koretskyi as new prime minister amid a reshuffle, with defence industrial expansion and EU membership still central.

Defense & Security: Poland says it intercepted Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea again, framing the flights as readiness-testing for NATO; separate warnings from Poland and Baltic leaders point to possible Russian hybrid or sabotage plans targeting critical infrastructure. Poland-Ukraine Tensions: The ABW has charged an 18-year-old Ukrainian man over alleged Volhynia war memorial vandalism and attempts to incite ethnic tensions, with prosecutors also alleging Russian-linked online recruitment and crypto payments. EU Climate Politics: Ten EU governments led by Poland and Italy are pushing the Commission to soften ETS reform, seeking a longer path before emissions caps reach zero. Infrastructure & Economy: Poland has started construction of the €2.33bn “Cape Pomerania” deepwater port near Świnoujście, pitched as a dual-use logistics and defense project to rival Hamburg. Ukraine Politics: Ukraine’s defense minister Mykhailo Fedorov announced his resignation amid Zelensky’s cabinet reshuffle. International Context: A Pew poll finds China viewed more favorably than the U.S. in most surveyed countries, with Poland among the few exceptions.

EU Sports Funding Row: Nine EU states, including Poland, ask Brussels to cut funding for the IOC and federations that re-admitted Russian and Belarusian athletes, as the IOC defends its provisional lift of the ROC suspension. Ukraine Support: Germany delivered hydraulic rescue equipment to Ukraine’s State Emergency Service to speed extraction after Russian strikes. Baltic Security: Poland scrambled jets for a second straight day to intercept Russian Su-30s over the Baltic, while Poland’s FM warns of possible false-flag drone attacks using Ukrainian UAVs. Refugee Rules: The EU extended temporary protection for Ukrainians until March 2028, but now excludes military-age conscripts. Poland-Ukraine Politics: Prime Minister Donald Tusk says a ceasefire is unlikely soon. Poland in Space: Tusk announced plans to build Poland’s own spacecraft with ESA, including a Warsaw ESA eastern-flank office. Poland-India Economy: Poland and India discussed deeper MSME cooperation and digital transformation. Global Opinion: A Pew poll finds China and Xi are viewed more favourably than the US and Trump in most surveyed countries, with Poland among the few exceptions.

Coalition of the Willing Drills: Germany will now join the first “Coalition of the Willing” exercise for Ukraine in Poland, after earlier signals it would stay out—an apparent Berlin U-turn that will be discussed in a Franco-German security meeting. EU Migration Rules: The EU extended temporary protection for Ukrainians until March 2028, but new military-age men who are subject to conscription are excluded, tightening Brussels’ manpower-linked conditions. Baltic Security Alert: Lithuania’s president warned Russia may plan targeted attacks on critical infrastructure, prompting tighter protection around energy and transport nodes. Poland-Russia Escalation Fears: Polish FM Radosław Sikorski said Moscow could stage a false-flag using Ukrainian drones to justify escalation against a NATO state or itself. Poland’s Ukraine Defense Role: Poland received first U.S. M1110 assault bridges for keeping Abrams tanks moving, while talks continue on deeper defense cooperation with Ukraine. Ukraine War Pressure: Ukraine hit Russian tankers again, targeting Putin’s “shadow fleet” and ports tied to fuel routes. Poland Politics Watch: A former senior PiS-era official linked to the Polish National Foundation was detained over alleged misuse of funds tied to an internal advertising campaign.

Baltic Airspace Tensions: Polish fighter jets intercepted a Russian Il-20 reconnaissance aircraft near the Baltic coast, with Warsaw saying it was probing NATO readiness and gathering intelligence. Ukraine Support & Drills: PM Donald Tusk says Poland will host the first “Coalition of the Willing” joint military exercises this autumn, with British and French troops joining drills aimed at future security guarantees for Ukraine. Defense Hardware: Poland received its first M1110 Joint Assault Bridge bridge-layers to keep Abrams tanks moving across obstacles, with a planned fleet of 25. Diplomacy on the War: Poland’s foreign minister claims India’s PM Narendra Modi helped prevent Putin from using tactical nuclear weapons against Kyiv in 2022. EU Politics & Sports: EU ministers and member states are pushing back on Russian readmission in sport, while FIFA leadership speculation continues amid backlash around Gianni Infantino. International Business: Canada’s Woodward plans to relocate an Ontario defense-linked production site to Krakow, Poland, by 2027.

Ukraine War & Air Defence: Ukraine says it intercepted five Russian ballistic missiles overnight and also downed dozens of UAVs, as Kyiv pushes to harden air defences and seeks about €7bn for power recovery. Poland-Ukraine Security: Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Poland won’t send more Patriot missiles for now due to limited stockpiles, while Warsaw prepares autumn drills with UK and French troops for future “security guarantees” for Ukraine. Eastern Border Build-Up: Poland recorded only about one kilometre of new defensive construction on its eastern border in the first half of the year under the East Shield program, despite earlier claims of 61km covered via barrier extensions. EU Sanctions & Energy Leverage: EU diplomats are racing to agree a new 21st Russia sanctions package, with the oil price cap rules at stake if no deal is reached. NATO Politics: At the Ankara summit, Trump again pressed allies on spending and warned Europe over immigration and energy policy, while Dutch officials say they’ve hit their limit on direct Ukraine aid. Domestic Memory & Identity: Poland used DNA testing for the first time to identify WWII victims of the Volhynia massacres, naming eight people for families.

Cyber Sanctions: The EU and the UK rolled out their first joint cyber sanctions package targeting Russia’s FSB-linked “cyber ecosystem,” naming nine EU-listed individuals/entities and 24 under UK measures, with Brussels attributing the long-running Turla espionage network and the December 2025 Poland energy-grid attack to FSB Centre 16. Diplomatic Fallout: Germany, France, and the Netherlands summoned the Russian ambassadors after the EU accused Moscow of cyber espionage and sabotage across multiple member states. Ukraine Support in Focus: Allies met in Paris for the “Coalition of the Willing” to boost air and missile defence as Russia’s strikes strain Kyiv’s systems. Poland-Ukraine Trade: Poland says it will not lift its unilateral ban on certain Ukrainian agricultural imports, citing protection for local farmers and market stability. Poland’s International Ties: India and Poland held high-level talks in New Delhi to expand cooperation in trade, defence, technology, and counter-terrorism. Poland in Space: ESA formally announced Warsaw will host a new Civil Security and Resilience Center, plus co-development of Poland’s first sovereign spacecraft.

EU-Russia Cyber Crackdown: The EU imposed sanctions on nine people and four entities tied to Russia’s FSB-linked cyber ecosystem, with France saying it will summon the Russian ambassador over a “vast cyber campaign” that allegedly included sabotage of rail infrastructure in Poland. EU-UK Joint Action: Brussels and London also announced their first joint cyber sanctions package, explicitly linking attacks to the FSB’s “Center 16” and warning of hybrid destabilization tactics. Poland’s Security Moves: Warsaw will host a new European Space Agency security centre, underlining Poland’s push to expand its role in space tech and satellite communications. Ukraine-Related Migration Rules: The EU plans to tighten temporary protection for Ukrainians: new applicants would need a Ukrainian certificate confirming they are not subject to mobilization, a change Poland supports. Energy and Industry: Poland’s Baltic Power offshore wind farm has delivered first electricity to the grid, and Tusk says offshore power could support AI and data centres if auction pricing stays competitive. Regional Tensions: Poland marked the Volhynia WWII massacre anniversary with Tusk announcing a “Wall of Remembrance,” as political rows with Kyiv over historical memory continue. Polish Military Readiness: Planned exercises will take place in northeastern Poland near the Russia-Belarus border on July 13–14.

Poland-Ukraine Rift: Poland’s President Karol Nawrocki and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remain locked in a bitter row over WWII memory, after Zelenskyy’s move to honor a Ukrainian unit tied to the UPA sparked protests and renewed calls in Warsaw to block Ukraine’s EU path. Defense Cooperation With Conditions: Poland’s defense chief Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz says Warsaw can help modernize Ukraine’s MiG-29s, but only if Kyiv or allies pay the bill—framing it as “reciprocity” tied to access to Ukrainian drone and missile know-how. Russia Threat Posture: Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski tells Italy Russia lacks the means for a direct attack on Poland, while warning Warsaw still expects possible provocations. NATO Summit Fallout: At NATO’s Ankara summit, Trump pressed allies on spending and warned Europe over immigration and energy, while the alliance’s Ukraine support and industrial push stayed central. Coalition of the Willing: Leaders are set to meet in Paris to coordinate air-defense support for Ukraine, including licensed Patriot production and broader missile defense planning. Security at Home: Polish organized-crime links surfaced in Ireland, where Gardaí seized 11 military-grade firearms, including machine guns, tied to a Polish gang supplying other criminals.